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This year’s Federal Budget changed some of the mechanics of property investment in Australia. The treatment of negative gearing on new investment purchases is being reshaped. The capital gains tax discount is being replaced with cost-base indexation. These are meaningful shifts, and the market is right to read the detail carefully.
But the headlines are only part of the story.
Beneath them, the forces that actually drive Australia’s property market are unchanged and in several important ways, this Budget reinforces them. Population growth continues to outpace housing supply. Household formation keeps building. The Government is channelling capital toward new construction, supporting first home buyers, and preserving the policy environment around purpose-built specialist housing. The mechanics may be shifting; the underlying case isn’t.
But the headlines are only part of the story.
We asked five of our leaders what they make of it, and where they see the market heading from here.
But the headlines are only part of the story.
Forty-five years in real estate teaches you that Budgets create the weather, but the climate is set by something more durable: population growth, household formation, and the chronic undersupply of well-located housing. The detail in this Budget is significant, but the bigger story is that none of those forces have moved. If anything, the policy direction reinforces them.
— Greg Huxley, Executive Chairman, Equitifund Group
What we watch closely is buyer sentiment, and Budgets that put housing affordability at the top of the agenda tend to move it meaningfully. First home buyers are a highly engaged audience - they're researching, comparing, and waiting for a reason to commit. This Budget gives them one. We'd expect that to translate into increased enquiry and activity over the coming months
— Zara Scala, Marketing Director, Equitifund Group
The headline story of this Budget is the rebalancing of activity toward owner-occupiers and away from investors in established stock. From the sales side, that's a significant shift in the mix of buyers we'll be working with and it's a mix the market has been quietly moving toward for some time. We expect developers to be among the key beneficiaries of the new budget measures, as investors purchasing new residential developments will continue to have access to negative gearing benefits, unlike those investing in the established housing market.
— Ben Hamblett, National Sales Director, Equitifund Group
A Budget Built for New Supply
If there is a single defining theme of the 2026 Budget for our sector, it’s the deliberate channelling of capital toward newly built housing. The combination of measures supply-side investment, the extended foreign buyer ban, the carve-out for new builds within the investment property changes adds up to a coherent message. The Government wants more homes built, and it wants capital and incentives flowing toward the people and projects making that happen. For developers, builders, and the buyers who’ll occupy those homes, that’s a meaningful tailwind.
Often overlooked is that supply shortages are no longer isolated to one segment of the market. We are seeing structural undersupply across entry-level housing, rentals, disability accommodation, key worker housing and regional growth corridors simultaneously. That creates opportunity not only for developers, but for groups that can integrate finance, delivery, operations and long-term asset management effectively.
— Nick Lukowski, General Manager — Property (Operations), Equitifund Group
Households, Borrowing and the Finance Picture
Property doesn’t move in isolation from the wider economy, and the Budget’s household measures matter as much as the property-specific ones. Five rounds of tax cuts. The new Working Australians Tax Offset, worth up to $250 a year for over 13 million workers. A $1,000 instant tax deduction. These aren’t abstract numbers, they translate directly into household budgets, serviceability, and the borrowing capacity that ultimately shapes how the market moves through the year ahead.
For first-home buyers, this Budget materially improves the maths. The combination of tax relief, the Working Australians Tax Offset, and continued first-home buyer support flows directly into household budgets and serviceability calculations. In an environment where interest rate volatility has made borrowing capacity the deciding factor for many buyers, every dollar of that relief counts, and it brings a foot in the door within reach for a lot more Australians than yesterday.
— Andrew Frost, General Manager — Finance, Equitifund Group
Where the Investment Case Sharpens
For investors, the conversation has shifted but not in the direction the headlines suggest. As the tax treatment of investment in established property evolves, the opportunities in new-build investment and government-backed housing categories come into sharper focus. Specialist Disability Accommodation (SDA), in particular, sits squarely within the kinds of purpose-built, government-supported housing the policy environment is designed to encourage. It continues to offer one of the most distinctive intersections of stable long-duration returns and genuine social impact available in the market today.
For investors, the opportunity remains unchanged: identifying markets with strong long-term demand fundamentals and genuine supply constraints. Policy may shift buyer behaviour in the short term, but the broader fundamentals remain intact. Australia continues to face a structural housing shortage, a growing population and a limited supply of well-located land.
The Budget may also strengthen the relative appeal of higher-yielding investment opportunities, including SDA and well-located units, where income, specialised demand and limited suitable supply can create a compelling investment case. For home buyers, it further reinforces the PPOR as one of Australia’s most attractive long-term wealth-building vehicles, given it remains exempt from capital gains tax and continues to benefit from strong underlying housing demand.
— John Bekiaris, Head of Research (Property), Equitifund Group
The Through-Line
It’s tempting, after every Federal Budget, to focus on what has changed. But the story that actually matters in property the one that plays out over years and decades, not news cycles is the story of fundamentals. More Australians needing homes. Not enough being built. Capital and policy steadily aligning behind those who help close the gap.
The rules around how Australians invest in property are evolving. The reasons they do — are security, wealth, shelter, social impact are not.
If you’d like to talk through what the Budget means for your plans, your portfolio, or your next move, our team is here.
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